Jobless claims inch up to 232,000 — but there’s no sign of major layoffs

Layoffs rose early in the year and pushed jobless claims above 200,000, but they appear to have leveled off. Jobless claims have moved sideways since the spring, based on updated government figures that account for massive fraud in Massachusetts.

Key details: Of the 53 U.S. states and territories that report jobless claims, 32 showed an increase last week. The other 21 posted a decline.

The only state to show a notable increase was Ohio, where new claims rose by some 2,000 to just over 10,000. All other states showed only small changes.

The number of people collecting unemployment benefits in the U.S., meanwhile, increased by 6,000 to 1.8 million.

The gradual increase in these so-called continuing claims over the past year suggests it’s taking longer for people who lose their jobs to find new ones.

Big picture: Unemployment claims typically begin to rise when the economy is deteriorating and a recession is approaching, but there’s no evidence of an upsurge.

The number of new applications for jobless benefits is still extremely low, suggesting the labor market remains quite robust — too robust for the Federal Reserve.

The Fed will meet in two weeks to decide whether to raise interest rates again. Persistently high inflation and a relatively strong economy may have made the decision a closer call than it appeared a few weeks ago, analysts say.

Looking ahead: “Labor market conditions are still tight,” said lead U.S. economist Nancy Vanden Houten in a note to clients. “While we expect the Fed to leave rates steady at its upcoming meeting, a more sustained loosening of labor market conditions is needed to keep rate hikes permanently off the table.”

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+2.12%
and S&P 500
SPX,
+1.45%
were set to open lower in Thursday trades.