Ukraine wants more negotiating power as forces advance into Russia, humiliating Moscow

Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russian border territory a week ago came as a surprise to many officials within the government in Kyiv, a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the matter told CNBC Monday — only a handful of people knew about the operation beforehand, and government officials have since been ordered to be in “silent mode” as to its strategic goals.

Ukraine’s initial silence with regards to the cross-border raid, and ongoing tactic of “strategic ambiguity” designed to keep Russia “off balance,” appears to have been key to its initial success and current advances into the Kursk region.

Russia’s slow and sluggish response to what Russian President Vladimir Putin branded a “large-scale provocation” has also exposed weaknesses in its military command and has humiliated its leadership. 

One week on from the launch of the border raid and information is slowly emerging as to the size and scale of Ukraine’s operation on Russian soil, and its objectives.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Sunday that it was designed “to put pressure on the aggressor Russia” and to push “the war into the aggressor’s territory.”

Revealing further details in his first public comments on the Kursk operation, Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Monday that Ukraine now controls around 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of the region.

Russian official Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of the Kursk region, told a solemn-looking Putin via videoconference Monday that Ukraine controlled 28 settlements. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said geolocated footage suggests Ukraine controls a higher number of around 40 settlements, as of Monday.

Several thousand Ukrainian troops are now operating inside Russia, the senior Ukrainian official told CNBC, and “hundreds” of Russian prisoners of war had already been captured because “they were taken off guard” by the launch of last week’s operation.

Ukraine has no immediate plans to turn back either, according to the government official, who spoke to CNBC on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the ongoing operation in Kursk.

“We are not being overly excited, overly jubilant, because everybody understands that this is still a war …. but what happens, and what continues to develop in Kursk, is going to really have a huge impact on how this war continues to go,” the official said, likening the significance of the latest operation to the liberation of Kherson, in southern Ukraine, in late 2022.

There was a recognition that a war of attrition was taking place on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine and that Kyiv, with finite access to manpower and resources, would not be able to sustain such a position long-term. The incursion, the source added, was designed to turn the tide in the war:

“Hopefully, if everything goes well, the presence of the Ukrainian troops in Russia will serve as a force to change the dynamics of the war, and it will increase our negotiating power, for example, in the context of the possible peace initiatives.”

The official had little optimism for direct talks in the near-term but said an intermediary like Turkey or the United Arab Emirates could be involved in future mediation.

“So it’s far from over. The war continues, but at the same time it’s a hugely important development for Ukraine’s positions, for Ukraine’s morale, for the world’s belief in Ukraine’s capability,” the official noted, adding:

“We have shown to the world again that we can surprise, that we’re capable of these maneuvers all of a sudden, they’re asymmetrical, they’re unexpected, and they put us in a better position in terms of our strategic prospects.”

President Putin vowed on Monday a “worthy response” to Ukraine’s border raid, just as 11,000 more civilians were evacuated in Kursk’s neighboring region Belgorod, due to “enemy activity.”

“The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces are increasing dramatically for them, including among the most combat-ready units, units that the enemy is transferring to our border,” Putin told a televised meeting with top security officials and regional governors, according to Reuters.

“The enemy will certainly receive a worthy response, and all the goals facing us will, without a doubt, be achieved.” Putin did not substantiate his claims or give any further detail on what Russia’s response could be.

Russia’s defense ministry initially played down the incursion when it started last week but soon revised its position, stating that around 1,000 troops and numerous tanks and armored vehicles were involved.

By Sunday, Russia’s defense ministry had acknowledged that Ukrainian units had advanced up to 30 kilometers into Kursk and that fighting was ongoing.

The incursion has undoubtedly rocked Russian defense and government officials, prompting the evacuation of thousands of citizens in Kursk and neighboring Belgorod, and Russian troops and resources to be redeployed to Kursk from areas of intense fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The government official CNBC spoke to emphasized that Ukraine did not want to annexe parts of Russia but wanted to try to use its present position as “leverage” to “bring about a just peace, faster.”

“This is not about Ukraine’s desire to seize Russian territory. We’re confident the world understands this is not about annexing parts of Russia. We don’t need that territory. We just need them to get out from ours,” the official said.

Geopolitical analysts said the Kursk operation needed to be watched closely and could herald a breakthrough in the war.

One possible scenario is that more Ukrainian troops could be sent into Kursk to reinforce the operation, although this would deprive crucial frontline positions and leave them weakened and unprotected. Kyiv also maintains that its top priority is protecting its troops.

As such, much of what happens next will depend on Russia’s reaction to the incursion, with concerns the response could be furious given the Kremlin’s humiliation.

Matthew Savill, the military sciences director at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank, said Russia had been “severely embarrassed” by the cross-border raid, but the challenge for Ukraine lay in sustaining it.

“Sustaining a force of any size in Russia, and defending against counter-attacks, will be hard, given the limited reserves available to Ukraine,” Savill said in emailed comments.

“While the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative about being on the defensive, it seems unlikely they would want to sustain a large incursion for months; they will have a decision to make about the best time to trade in the ground they have captured, and to what end,” he said.

For strategists like David Roche, veteran investor and strategist at Quantum Strategy, Ukraine’s latest offensive in Kursk was “looking more like a breakthrough” that threatened three critical Russian assets: the 415,000 residents of Kursk, two major highways and railways that are the major supply routes to Russian forces at the Kharkiv and Sumy fronts in northeastern Ukraine and lastly, the Kursk nuclear power plant which is a critical energy supplier.

“The Ukrainians have to worry about the ultimate Russian response and its own military logistics involved in a rapid advance,” Roche said, but the incursion had achieved a number of strategic goals, he noted.

First of all, the border raid was a humiliation for President Putin, he said. Secondly, it brought the cost and reality of war home to Russian people and third, Roche said the border raid reversed the “terms of confrontation by showing war must be conducted on Russian territory in order to win.”

Roche said the incursion showed Western concerns over directly taking the war to Russia and striking within Russian territory, and fears of escalation, were misplaced.

“[The] West has been wrong in forcing Ukraine to fight according to Moscow rules,” Roche said.