Fed’s Goolsbee says some high monthly inflation readings won’t knock his confidence

“There is nothing wrong” with some ups and downs, he added.

On Tuesday, the government’s January consumer inflation data came in hot across the board compared with expectations, causing many economists and traders to push their forecast of the Fed’s first rate cut until June or later.

In its January policy statement, the Fed said it did not expect to cut interest rates until it had “greater confidence” that inflation is moving down toward the 2% target.

“We want to see more good data. It’s not that we’re looking for better data,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explained at his press conference.

In his talk, Goolsbee said more data like that seen over the past six months was “probably too stringent” a test.

“I don’t support waiting until inflation on a 12-month basis has already achieved 2% to begin to cut rates,” he said.

Goolsbee said he thought the Fed’s benchmark interest rate was so high that it was pushing down growth.

“Our current policy stance is quite restrictive,” he said. This raised the possibility that the economy would slow too much.

“I think it’s worth acknowledging that if we stay this restrictive for too long, we will start having to worry about the employment side of the Fed’s mandate,” Goolsbee said.

Some economists disagree, thinking that the Fed’s benchmark rate is not putting downward pressure on growth. They point out that the economy grew at a strong average growth rate of 4.1% over the last six months of 2023.

Stocks
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were higher on Wednesday while the 10-year Treasury yield
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slipped to 4.27%.